Does high Bitcoin volatility mark a bottom?
No, not measurably. BTC cleared its cost 52.4 % of the time against 52.1 % on an ordinary day. The gap is inside what chance produces at this sample size.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-02 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When BTC implied volatility (DVOL) is above 70 pts, does BTC outperform its baseline over the next 5 days?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
Capitulation is supposed to look like panic: implied volatility spikes as the last sellers leave, and that is where the bottom is.
103 signal days since 2020-11-02. On 54 of them BTC rose more than break-even over the next 5 days (52.4%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 52.1% of the time — so the condition adds +0.3 points.
Typical move on a signal day: +0.36% against +0.24% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -25.57%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 52.1% of the time, flipped 103 times, gives 54 or more hits in about 100% of runs (p = 1.0). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 51.0%, second half 53.8% — not both above baseline; one half carries it.
What it would take: the excess over baseline is so small that no realistic sample would settle it — roughly 106,712 signal days for p < 0.05, against the 103 there have been. A question that needs eighty years of data is not a question with an answer.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (52.1 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
Open this in the tester