Does gold rise when real rates fall?
No. Gold cleared its cost 44.8 % of the time, against 45.1 % on an ordinary day — the condition does no better than no condition at all.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-10 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When the 10-year real rate falls on the day, does gold outperform its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
Gold pays no interest, so the cost of holding it is whatever a safe real yield would have paid. When that yield falls, holding gold costs less. This is the textbook mechanism.
444 signal days since 2020-11-10. On 199 of them gold rose more than break-even over the next 1 day (44.8%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 45.1% of the time — so the condition adds -0.3 points.
Typical move on a signal day: +0.04% against +0.08% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -10.78%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 45.1% of the time, flipped 444 times, gives 199 or more hits in about 92% of runs (p = 0.9241). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 39.2%, second half 50.5% — not both above baseline; one half carries it.
No excess over baseline — more days would not help.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (45.1 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
Open this in the tester