Does silver follow gold?
No, not measurably. Silver cleared its cost 48.7 % of the time against 47.7 % on an ordinary day. The gap is inside what chance produces at this sample size.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-10 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When gold rises on the day, does silver outperform its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
Silver is treated as gold with more leverage: the same monetary metal, a smaller market, bigger swings.
519 signal days since 2020-11-10. On 253 of them silver rose more than break-even over the next 1 day (48.7%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 47.7% of the time — so the condition adds +1.0 points.
Typical move on a signal day: +0.11% against +0.10% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -9.80%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 47.7% of the time, flipped 519 times, gives 253 or more hits in about 66% of runs (p = 0.6605). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 48.6%, second half 48.8% — both above baseline, the edge is not one lucky stretch.
What it would take: at this hit rate about 9604 signal days for p < 0.05 and about 39601 to survive the family of 702 tests. There have been 519.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (47.7 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
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