Does Bitcoin rise when the dollar falls?
No. BTC cleared its cost 49.4 % of the time, against 50.3 % on an ordinary day — the condition does no better than no condition at all.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-10 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When the dollar index falls on the day, does BTC outperform its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
If Bitcoin is debasement insurance, a falling dollar is its thesis playing out. It is one of the most repeated claims in crypto.
482 signal days since 2020-11-10. On 238 of them BTC rose more than break-even over the next 1 day (49.4%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 50.3% of the time — so the condition adds -0.9 points.
Typical move on a signal day: -0.04% against +0.04% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -15.94%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 50.3% of the time, flipped 482 times, gives 238 or more hits in about 72% of runs (p = 0.7156). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 50.2%, second half 48.5% — both above baseline, the edge is not one lucky stretch.
No excess over baseline — more days would not help.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (50.3 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
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