Should you buy Bitcoin when Fear and Greed shows extreme fear?
No. BTC cleared its cost 49.5 % of the time, against 52.1 % on an ordinary day — the condition does no better than no condition at all.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-02 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When the crypto Fear & Greed index (0-100) is below 25 pts, does BTC outperform its baseline over the next 5 days?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
«Be greedy when others are fearful» is the most quoted line in investing, and the Fear & Greed index turns it into a number anyone can act on.
97 signal days since 2020-11-02. On 48 of them BTC rose more than break-even over the next 5 days (49.5%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 52.1% of the time — so the condition adds -2.6 points.
Typical move on a signal day: -0.12% against +0.24% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -28.13%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 52.1% of the time, flipped 97 times, gives 48 or more hits in about 61% of runs (p = 0.6129). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 41.7%, second half 57.1% — not both above baseline; one half carries it.
No excess over baseline — more days would not help.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (52.1 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
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