Does Ethereum beat Bitcoin when crypto rallies?
No. ETH cleared its cost 46.6 % of the time, against 48.0 % on an ordinary day — the condition does no better than no condition at all.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-02 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When BTC moves more than 1 % on the day, does ETH outperform its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
Altcoins are said to have higher beta: when Bitcoin runs, everything behind it runs further.
521 signal days since 2020-11-02. On 243 of them ETH rose more than break-even over the next 1 day (46.6%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 48.0% of the time — so the condition adds -1.4 points.
Typical move on a signal day: -0.01% against +0.08% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -13.42%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 48.0% of the time, flipped 521 times, gives 243 or more hits in about 54% of runs (p = 0.5395). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 46.5%, second half 46.7% — both above baseline, the edge is not one lucky stretch.
No excess over baseline — more days would not help.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (48.0 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
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