Does Bitcoin drop when bonds sell off?
No. BTC cleared its cost 46.1 % of the time, against 49.3 % on an ordinary day — the condition does no better than no condition at all.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-10 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When TLT (long bonds) falls on the day, does BTC fall more than its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
A bond sell-off means rates rising, and rising rates are supposed to punish long-duration assets — which is how Bitcoin is often classified.
514 signal days since 2020-11-10. On 237 of them BTC fell more than break-even over the next 1 day (46.1%). On an ordinary day the same SHORT works 49.3% of the time — so the condition adds -3.2 points.
Typical move on a signal day: -0.22% against -0.04% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -11.70%.
Chance: a coin that lands SHORT-right 49.3% of the time, flipped 514 times, gives 237 or more hits in about 16% of runs (p = 0.158). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 48.6%, second half 43.6% — both above baseline, the edge is not one lucky stretch.
No excess over baseline — more days would not help.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (49.3 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
Open this in the tester