Does a strong dollar hurt oil?
No, not measurably. Brent cleared its cost 47.6 % of the time against 45.0 % on an ordinary day. The gap is inside what chance produces at this sample size.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-10 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When the dollar index moves more than 0.3 % on the day, does Brent fall more than its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
Oil is invoiced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive everywhere else and should cool demand.
269 signal days since 2020-11-10. On 128 of them Brent fell more than break-even over the next 1 day (47.6%). On an ordinary day the same SHORT works 45.0% of the time — so the condition adds +2.6 points.
Typical move on a signal day: -0.22% against -0.22% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -9.22%.
Chance: a coin that lands SHORT-right 45.0% of the time, flipped 269 times, gives 128 or more hits in about 39% of runs (p = 0.3915). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 47.8%, second half 47.4% — both above baseline, the edge is not one lucky stretch.
What it would take: at this hit rate about 1421 signal days for p < 0.05 and about 5859 to survive the family of 702 tests. There have been 269.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (45.0 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
Open this in the tester