Does a falling Nasdaq lift gold?
No, not measurably. Gold cleared its cost 46.1 % of the time against 45.1 % on an ordinary day. The gap is inside what chance produces at this sample size.
Measured on daily data from 2020-11-10 to 2026-10-12, after the cost of trading. Recomputed every time this page loads.
When Nasdaq falls on the day, does gold outperform its baseline over the next 1 day?
A question only means something if it is stated precisely enough to be wrong. This is the form the engine measured.
Gold is the classic safe haven: when equities fall, money is supposed to move into it.
458 signal days since 2020-11-10. On 211 of them gold rose more than break-even over the next 1 day (46.1%). On an ordinary day the same LONG works 45.1% of the time — so the condition adds +1.0 points.
Typical move on a signal day: +0.11% against +0.07% on an ordinary day. Worst signal day: -10.78%.
Chance: a coin that lands LONG-right 45.1% of the time, flipped 458 times, gives 211 or more hits in about 71% of runs (p = 0.7073). That is not distinguishable from luck.
Consistency: first half of the period 41.5%, second half 50.7% — not both above baseline; one half carries it.
What it would take: at this hit rate about 9604 signal days for p < 0.05 and about 39601 to survive the family of 702 tests. There have been 458.
A relationship that only appears in one year is usually that year, not a relationship.
the hit rate over the next 30 signal days falls to the baseline (45.1 %) or below — the relationship disappears out of sample
Stated before the next observation, not after. The page recomputes, so if this stops being true the answer here changes with it.
Change the condition, the asset, the direction or the holding period and measure it against the same six years.
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