Bottom-fishing XRP

IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital

Hypothesis and result

XRP at a 20-day low, bought and held one day: 59.4% up against a 48.7% baseline, 58.3% over break-even, median +0.78%, n=192. Above its own yearly baseline in 6 of 6 years.

Hit rate is real; the tail is not — one −42% day (SEC, Dec 2020) makes the mean negative. Shadow must show positive net, not just hits.

The evidence card

Sample	192 signal days · 1827 days of data
Effect	59.4% vs 48.7%, median +0.78% (p=0.004)
Half-split test	Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record.
Multiple-testing status	p = 0.0038. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion.
Stage	In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Re-measured	Re-measured nightly by the day engine (rule xrp_bunn20) · last 2026-09-11
Forward shadow	1 shadow entries · INSUFFICIENT DATA — no rate is shown before 10 entries; the finding needs 30

What would invalidate it

shadow hit rate falls to baseline on the first 30
the BRENT control does as well — then we measure something universal, not XRP
shadow hits above baseline but net ≤ 0 after 30 — the tail eats the edge

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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