OCTAVIAN APEXGLOBAL DECISION INTELLIGENCE
RESEARCH · 2026-09-11

Top-fishing: selling extremes

FALLEN   Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose

Hypothesis and result

Going short when an instrument reaches a 5-, 10- or 20-day high, or after a day beyond 1.5 or 2.0 standard deviations. Tested on oil, XRP and gas over four holding periods.

Bottoms sometimes bounce; tops do not reliably roll over. The asymmetry is itself a finding.

The evidence card

Sample108 tests · 1258 days of data
Effect0 of 54 top signals survive
Half-split testNot recorded on the card — see the result text above.
Multiple-testing statusNot judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
StageFallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Re-measuredRe-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11

What would invalidate it

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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