RESEARCH · 2026-09-13
Intraday signals on SOL, XRP and WLD (hourly data, two years)
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
300 tests on 17 485 hours: momentum, reversal after an extreme, relative strength against BTC, BTC as leader, hour of day, weekday, volatility. Then 64 variants of whatever looked strongest. The premise was 'with this much data there must be something'.
More data finds more patterns, none of them clear cost. Significance without size is not an edge.
The evidence card
| Sample | 364 tests · 730 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | 117 with p < 0.05 where chance gives 18 — and nothing tradable |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-13 |
What would invalidate it
- a variant clears break-even in forward shadow with n ≥ 60
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.