RESEARCH · 2026-09-19
Bitcoin after a Fed rate hike
IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Hypothesis and result
Across 21 hike days from 2015 to 2026 (Fed target rate steps up), Bitcoin was up only 35 % of the time 5 and 20 trading days later against a 56–58 % baseline, median −1.7 % and −1.9 % against +0.7 % and +1.3 %. The half-split holds on both horizons. Equities and gold after a hike sit inside noise. n = 20 from two hiking cycles, p ≈ 0.07 — not family-wise significant.
A hike is not a headwind for equities; it may be one for Bitcoin. Recorded as discovered, graded forward on the next five hikes.
The evidence card
| Sample | 20 hevingsdager |
|---|---|
| Effect | 35 % up at +5d/+20d vs 56–58 % baseline (in-sample, n=20) |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.07. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-11-03 |
What would invalidate it
- 4 of the next 5 hikes leave Bitcoin higher 20 days later
- the effect disappears when the 2016–18 and 2022–23 cycles are measured separately
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.