RESEARCH · 2026-09-08
News sentiment as a directional signal
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Hypothesis: positive headlines lead to rises and negative headlines to falls. After de-duplicating repeated headlines, sentiment matched the next move 54 % of the time.
Headlines describe the move that already happened; the tone follows price, not the other way round.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above |
|---|---|
| Effect | 54 % after de-duplication |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-08 |
What would invalidate it
- sentiment on tier-1 sources only exceeds 60 % with n ≥ 100
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.