RESEARCH · 2026-09-11
Bottom- and top-fishing natural gas
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
All twelve combinations of extreme (5/10/20-day low or high) and holding period tested on natural gas.
Nothing in gas extremes carries information after cost.
The evidence card
| Sample | 305 signal days · 1258 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | best cell 53.7 % vs 50.7 % baseline (p = 0.38) |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.377. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11 |
What would invalidate it
- a cell clears p < 0.01 and the half-split on 200 new days
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.