RESEARCH · 2026-09-11
Memecoin volume as a warning for Solana
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Trading volume in Solana memecoins measured against each coin's own normal level, tested against SOL's next-day direction at thresholds of 1.5×, 2× and 3×.
Memecoin volume spikes say nothing about SOL the next day; the sign is not even stable across thresholds.
The evidence card
| Sample | 699 days · 699 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | 53.2 / 45.2 / 51.5 % vs 48.4 % baseline |
| Half-split test | Fails — the sign does not hold in both halves. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11 |
What would invalidate it
- a threshold gives more than 58 % with n ≥ 60 and a passing half-split
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.