Memecoin volume as a warning for Solana

FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose

Hypothesis and result

Trading volume in Solana memecoins measured against each coin's own normal level, tested against SOL's next-day direction at thresholds of 1.5×, 2× and 3×.

Memecoin volume spikes say nothing about SOL the next day; the sign is not even stable across thresholds.

The evidence card

Sample	699 days · 699 days of data
Effect	53.2 / 45.2 / 51.5 % vs 48.4 % baseline
Half-split test	Fails — the sign does not hold in both halves.
Multiple-testing status	Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
Stage	Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Re-measured	Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11

What would invalidate it

a threshold gives more than 58 % with n ≥ 60 and a passing half-split

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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