OCTAVIAN APEXGLOBAL DECISION INTELLIGENCE
RESEARCH · 2026-09-11

Memecoin activity as a regime filter for BTC beta

FALLEN   Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose

Hypothesis and result

Hypothesis: SOL detaches from Bitcoin when memecoin flow takes over, making the BTC-beta signal less reliable on those days. Measured: SOL's correlation with BTC ranges from 0.65 to 0.88 across memecoin-activity regimes.

The regime shifts the strength of the BTC link, but SOL never detaches — the filter has no days to act on.

The evidence card

Sample699 days · 699 days of data
EffectSOL~BTC 0.65 to 0.88 across regimes (p = 0.0003)
Half-split testNot recorded on the card — see the result text above.
Multiple-testing statusp = 0.0003. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion.
StageFallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Re-measuredRe-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11

What would invalidate it

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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