OCTAVIAN APEXGLOBAL DECISION INTELLIGENCE
RESEARCH · 2026-09-09

LONG/SHORT asymmetry

FALLEN   Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose

Hypothesis and result

LONG appeared to beat SHORT by 2.1 percentage points.

A small difference that does not hold in both halves is noise with a sign.

The evidence card

Samplestated in the result above
Effect+2.1 pp; fails the half-split
Half-split testFails — the sign does not hold in both halves.
Multiple-testing statusNot judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
StageFallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Re-measuredRe-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-09

What would invalidate it

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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