FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Does any market move first? Across 28 of 28 instrument pairs on daily data and 92 of 132 on minute data, the cross-correlation peaks at lag zero — the moves are simultaneous. The 40 pairs that peak elsewhere have correlations below 0.15.
| Sample | 132 instrument pairs |
|---|---|
| Effect | 0 of 28 daily pairs show lead time |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-09 |
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.
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