RESEARCH · 2026-09-09
Lead time between markets
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Does any market move first? Across 28 of 28 instrument pairs on daily data and 92 of 132 on minute data, the cross-correlation peaks at lag zero — the moves are simultaneous. The 40 pairs that peak elsewhere have correlations below 0.15.
There is nothing to front-run: when the condition can be observed, the follower has already moved.
The evidence card
| Sample | 132 instrument pairs |
|---|---|
| Effect | 0 of 28 daily pairs show lead time |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-09 |
What would invalidate it
- a pair shows a stable non-zero lag with correlation above 0.3 on 90 new days
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.