FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
The engine's confidence score does not separate winners from losers: AUC 0.498. Every confidence band and every threshold is net negative, and the gradient is not monotonic.
| Sample | 465 trades · 57 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | AUC 0.498 (p = 0.94), n = 465 |
| Half-split test | Fails — the sign does not hold in both halves. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.944. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-06 |
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.
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