OCTAVIAN APEXGLOBAL DECISION INTELLIGENCE
RESEARCH · 2026-09-10

Combinations of logged market state

FALLEN   Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose

Hypothesis and result

253 combinations of risk, macro, geopolitics, energy, AI, direction, pressure and GDI score were tested against whether a trade cleared break-even, in three universes: all trades, only instruments still traded, only exchanges.

The logged state labels do not sort winners from losers at the trade level.

The evidence card

Sample1844 trades · 77 days of data
Effect0 of 253 survive
Half-split testNot recorded on the card — see the result text above.
Multiple-testing statusNot judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
StageFallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Re-measuredRe-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-10

What would invalidate it

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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