RESEARCH · 2026-09-11
Doing the opposite of the signals
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Each of 374 trades recomputed with the opposite direction, capital and leverage taken from the trade itself. Friction is unchanged when direction flips — slippage works against you both ways and the fee is paid regardless.
A losing system cannot be inverted into a winning one; the losses are mostly cost, not direction.
The evidence card
| Sample | 374 trades · 35 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | −297 actual against −1 767 inverted |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11 |
What would invalidate it
- an inverted subset beats the original after costs on 200 new trades
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.