RESEARCH · 2026-09-06
Weekend as a filter
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Hypothesis: crypto trading at the weekend should differ from weekdays. It fails the half-split test — the difference has one sign in the first half of the record and the other in the second.
Weekend is not a regime; it is a smaller sample.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above |
|---|---|
| Effect | fails the half-split |
| Half-split test | Fails — the sign does not hold in both halves. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-06 |
What would invalidate it
- a weekend effect with a stable sign appears on 26 new weekends
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.