RESEARCH · 2026-09-07
Gold against the real rate
CONFIRMED Confirmed — passes the validation tests
Hypothesis and result
Gold falls 0.95% per 10 basis points the real rate rises, on jobs-report days. Monotonic, passes the half-split test. The only macro relationship currently surviving Apex's validation criteria — and it holds for gold alone.
On NFP days, the real-rate move is the gold trade.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above · 209 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | −0.95% per 10 bp (p=0.001) |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.001. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Confirmed — passes the validation tests |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-07 |
What would invalidate it
- the slope stops being monotonic across the bands
- p rises above 0.01 as new jobs days are added
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.