Flight to safety signals a turn

IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital

Hypothesis and result

When equities fall on the same day gold AND bonds rise, Nasdaq is up 67.6% of the time over the next two days against 55.6% otherwise. ETH follows (+11.8 pp), BTC barely (+7.7 pp), SOL not at all.

Capital fleeing to safety on the same day marks a two-day rebound in risk assets.

The evidence card

Sample	148 cases · 1252 days of data
Effect	67.6% vs 55.6%, median +0.83% (n=148, p=0.004)
Half-split test	Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record.
Multiple-testing status	p = 0.00366. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion.
Stage	In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Re-measured	Re-measured nightly by the day engine (rule flukt) · last 2026-09-11

What would invalidate it

shadow hit rate falls to baseline on the first 30 cases
SOL keeps showing nothing — a broad risk turn should include it, and its absence is unexplained

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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