RESEARCH · 2026-09-11
Flight to safety signals a turn
IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Hypothesis and result
When equities fall on the same day gold AND bonds rise, Nasdaq is up 67.6% of the time over the next two days against 55.6% otherwise. ETH follows (+11.8 pp), BTC barely (+7.7 pp), SOL not at all.
Capital fleeing to safety on the same day marks a two-day rebound in risk assets.
The evidence card
| Sample | 148 cases · 1252 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | 67.6% vs 55.6%, median +0.83% (n=148, p=0.004) |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.00366. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital |
| Re-measured | Re-measured nightly by the day engine (rule flukt) · last 2026-09-11 |
| Forward shadow | 6 shadow entries · INSUFFICIENT DATA — no rate is shown before 10 entries; the finding needs 30 |
What would invalidate it
- shadow hit rate falls to baseline on the first 30 cases
- SOL keeps showing nothing — a broad risk turn should include it, and its absence is unexplained
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.