OCTAVIAN APEXGLOBAL DECISION INTELLIGENCE
RESEARCH · 2026-09-11

Capital flow as a warning for the Nasdaq

FALLEN   Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose

Hypothesis and result

84 tests: eleven sectors' inflows and outflows (top and bottom 10 % of days), defensive vs cyclical, breadth above 80 % or below 20 %, and dispersion between sectors — each measured against the Nasdaq's direction 1, 2 and 5 days ahead.

Sector flows are simultaneous with the index, not ahead of it.

The evidence card

Sample84 tests · 1253 days of data
Effect1 test with p < 0.05 where chance alone gives 4.2
Half-split testNot recorded on the card — see the result text above.
Multiple-testing statusNot judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
StageFallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Re-measuredRe-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11

What would invalidate it

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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