RESEARCH · 2026-09-11
Capital flow as a warning for the Nasdaq
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
84 tests: eleven sectors' inflows and outflows (top and bottom 10 % of days), defensive vs cyclical, breadth above 80 % or below 20 %, and dispersion between sectors — each measured against the Nasdaq's direction 1, 2 and 5 days ahead.
Sector flows are simultaneous with the index, not ahead of it.
The evidence card
| Sample | 84 tests · 1253 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | 1 test with p < 0.05 where chance alone gives 4.2 |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11 |
What would invalidate it
- a flow condition clears Bonferroni over the 84 tests on 180 new days
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.