RESEARCH · 2026-09-10
The deeper the equity fall, the tighter bitcoin follows stocks
CONFIRMED Confirmed — passes the validation tests
Hypothesis and result
BTC's correlation with equities rises monotonically through the drawdown bands: +0.02, +0.12, +0.14, +0.24. The gold link does not.
Bitcoin is a risk asset when it matters — the gold behaviour only exists in calm markets.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above · 1252 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | monotonic dose-response |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Confirmed — passes the validation tests |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-10 |
What would invalidate it
- monotonicity breaks as new days are added
- the deepest band (n=50) is pulled down by more days — it is thin today
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.