The deeper the equity fall, the tighter bitcoin follows stocks

CONFIRMED Confirmed — passes the validation tests

Hypothesis and result

BTC's correlation with equities rises monotonically through the drawdown bands: +0.02, +0.12, +0.14, +0.24. The gold link does not.

Bitcoin is a risk asset when it matters — the gold behaviour only exists in calm markets.

The evidence card

Sample	stated in the result above · 1254 days of data
Effect	monotonic dose-response
Half-split test	Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record.
Multiple-testing status	Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
Stage	Confirmed — passes the validation tests
Re-measured	Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-10

What would invalidate it

monotonicity breaks as new days are added
the deepest band (n=50) is pulled down by more days — it is thin today

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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