RESEARCH · 2026-09-10
The dollar pattern against Brent
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Dollar down, gold up and silver leading gold gave Brent −0.41% the next day over 70 episodes on two years. On six years the same rule is below baseline (42% vs 45%, n=271) with the first half at 39%.
A two-year pattern that does not survive six years.
The evidence card
| Sample | 70 episodes |
|---|---|
| Effect | fell 13 Sep: does not hold outside the window it was found in |
| Half-split test | Fails — the sign does not hold in both halves. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured nightly by the day engine (rule dollar) · last 2026-09-10 |
| Forward shadow | 6 shadow entries · INSUFFICIENT DATA — no rate is shown before 10 entries; the finding needs 30 |
What would invalidate it
- fortegnet snur i skyggen
- halvdelstesten fortsetter å feile når skyggedagene legges til
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.