FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Thesis: high inflation is bullish for crypto. Three independent measurements say not yet: 89 % of the 2026 rise in nominal yields was real rate (+50 bp) rather than inflation expectation (+6 bp); the real rate sat near its 97th percentile since 2003; and Bitcoin's 120-day correlation with the real rate was −0.28. The criterion the thesis needs — Bitcoin rising with rates while equities fall — has not been met.
| Sample | stated in the result above · 120 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | BTC vs real rate −0.28 (120 days) |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-08-28 |
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.
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