RESEARCH · 2026-09-01
Breadth as prediction
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Hypothesis: many coins rising at once says something about what happens next. Breadth as a predictor of the following day is a coin toss, and the half-split flips its sign.
Breadth confirms a rally; it does not forecast one.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above |
|---|---|
| Effect | coin toss; half-split flips |
| Half-split test | Fails — the sign does not hold in both halves. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-01 |
What would invalidate it
- breadth above 80 % gives more than 57 % next-day continuation with n ≥ 60 and a passing half-split
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.