RESEARCH · 2026-09-14
BTC moves as an entry for SOL/XRP/ETH
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
SOL, XRP and ETH move the same way as BTC on 80–95% of days, in every session window. But when BTC has first crossed ±0.3/0.5/1% since 00:00 UTC, the altcoin has already moved 1.5–2× as much, and the rest of the day sits at or below baseline. 27 tests, none survive.
BTC is the market's direction — it does not announce it ahead of the altcoins.
The evidence card
| Sample | 90 days · 90 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | fell 14 Sep: simultaneity, not lead |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-14 |
What would invalidate it
- a crossing threshold gives >55% over baseline with n≥40 and half-split on 90 new days
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.