Bitcoin's gold link at a five-year high — and it is bitcoin that moved

DISCOVERED Discovered — found in a sweep, not yet validated

Hypothesis and result

BTC against gold stands at +0.65 on 60 days, higher than 99.8% of readings since 2021. Meanwhile Nasdaq against gold fell from +0.55 to +0.22 — they went opposite ways, so it is not the whole market correlating more.

Bitcoin is being priced as a monetary asset in calm markets — but see the dose-response finding for what happens in stress.

The evidence card

Sample	60 days in window · 1253 days of data
Effect	BTC~gold +0.65 vs Nasdaq's +0.22 — gap +0.43, 96.6th percentile (p=0.011)
Half-split test	Not recorded on the card — see the result text above.
Multiple-testing status	p = 0.011. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion.
Stage	Discovered — found in a sweep, not yet validated
Re-measured	Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11

What would invalidate it

the gap to Nasdaq's gold correlation falls below 0.20 — then it was a regime effect
the link keeps vanishing on stress days

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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