RESEARCH · 2026-09-13
Bottom-fishing BTC
DISCOVERED Discovered — found in a sweep, not yet validated
Hypothesis and result
BTC at a 20-day low, bought and held one day: 60.6% over break-even against a 50.1% baseline, median +0.52%, n=142. Above its yearly baseline in 6 of 6 years. One of 19 candidates tested together; the other 18 fell.
Bottom-fishing works for BTC and XRP, not for SOL, ETH, gold or Brent — the two with the most monetary character.
The evidence card
| Sample | 142 signal days |
|---|---|
| Effect | 60.6% vs 50.1%, median +0.52% (p=0.015) |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.01468. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Discovered — found in a sweep, not yet validated |
| Re-measured | Re-measured nightly by the day engine (rule btc_bunn20) · last 2026-09-13 |
| Forward shadow | 11 shadow entries · 54.5 % hit · net 3.06 |
What would invalidate it
- shadow hit rate falls to baseline on the first 30
- the XRP bottom falls at the same time — then it is one crypto-bottom effect, not two findings
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.