BTC beta through altcoins

IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital

Hypothesis and result

WLFI, XRP and SOL are the same bet: BTC direction through an altcoin. The only positive line in the crypto book (54%, +138), but the drift control failed on hourly data.

Three altcoin positions in the same direction are one BTC position with three times the friction.

The evidence card

Sample	stated in the result above
Effect	54% over break-even, +138 units
Half-split test	Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record.
Multiple-testing status	Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
Stage	In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Re-measured	Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-05

What would invalidate it

drift control also fails on minute data
the effect disappears when measured within each instrument instead of aggregated

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

All research · Learn · The Apex day

Octopod Holding AS · Octavian Apex is a research and decision-support tool. Nothing on this site is investment advice, and no result shown is a promise of future performance. Understanding markets · Markets · Deep dive · Market intelligence · About · Methodology · Research · Learn · The Apex read · The Apex day · Terms · Privacy · invest@apexgdi.com