RESEARCH · 2026-09-05
BTC beta through altcoins
IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Hypothesis and result
WLFI, XRP and SOL are the same bet: BTC direction through an altcoin. The only positive line in the crypto book (54%, +138), but the drift control failed on hourly data.
Three altcoin positions in the same direction are one BTC position with three times the friction.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above |
|---|---|
| Effect | 54% over break-even, +138 units |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-05 |
What would invalidate it
- drift control also fails on minute data
- the effect disappears when measured within each instrument instead of aggregated
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.