CONFIRMED Confirmed — passes the validation tests
Brent's correlation with equities, gold and the real rate have all fallen clearly, and the shift also holds on a six-month window. The one instrument in the tested set that became more independent while the rest of the market tightened.
| Sample | stated in the result above · 1254 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | shift holds at 180 days (p=0.0016) |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.0039. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Confirmed — passes the validation tests |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-10 |
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.
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