RESEARCH · 2026-09-11
Bottom-fishing Brent
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Brent at a 10-day low, bought and held one day: 59.1 % against a 53.2 % baseline, n = 186. It looks promising and does not pass the tests.
Oil does not bounce off its own lows the way Bitcoin and XRP do.
The evidence card
| Sample | 186 signal days · 1258 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | 59.1 % vs 53.2 % (p = 0.107) |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.107. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-11 |
What would invalidate it
- p falls below 0.01 with the half-split holding as days are added
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.