BRENT on a 24-hour horizon

IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital

Hypothesis and result

63.3% hit rate at 24 hours in both directions, passes the half-split test, and confidence is calibrated (50 → 58 → 76%) — the first time in the project.

The Brent signal carries direction for hours, not minutes.

The evidence card

Sample	stated in the result above
Effect	63.3% at 24h
Half-split test	Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record.
Multiple-testing status	Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow.
Stage	In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Re-measured	Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-19

What would invalidate it

shadow hit rate falls below 55% on the first 20 entries
calibration inverts — high confidence must keep hitting more often than low

How to read this page

Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.

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