RESEARCH · 2026-09-08
BRENT on a 24-hour horizon
IN SHADOW In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital
Hypothesis and result
63.3% hit rate at 24 hours in both directions, passes the half-split test, and confidence is calibrated (50 → 58 → 76%) — the first time in the project.
The Brent signal carries direction for hours, not minutes.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above |
|---|---|
| Effect | 63.3% at 24h |
| Half-split test | Passes — the sign holds in both halves of the record. |
| Multiple-testing status | Not judged on p — the finding is assessed on hit rate, half-split and forward shadow. |
| Stage | In shadow — evaluated daily, no capital |
| Re-measured | Re-measured when its source script is run — no schedule · last 2026-09-19 |
What would invalidate it
- shadow hit rate falls below 55% on the first 20 entries
- calibration inverts — high confidence must keep hitting more often than low
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.