RESEARCH · 2026-09-09
BTC up next day under three simultaneous conditions
FALLEN Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose
Hypothesis and result
Real rate above 2%, equities down and bonds down on the same day: BTC up 66% of the time the next day against 50% baseline (n=85). Passes the half-split test. Fell on 11 Sep only because Bonferroni over 276 tests demands p<0.00018 and p is 0.001. Now traded in shadow by the daily engine.
When capital leaves both stocks and bonds while money is expensive, bitcoin is where it goes the next day.
The evidence card
| Sample | stated in the result above · 1183 days of data |
|---|---|
| Effect | 66% vs 50%, median +0.9% (n=85, p=0.001) · engine backtest 6y: +696, max DD −92, 4/4 years |
| Half-split test | Not recorded on the card — see the result text above. |
| Multiple-testing status | p = 0.0005. Judged against the whole family of 276 hypotheses Apex has logged (Bonferroni threshold 0.00018): does not clear it on its own — which is why forward shadow evidence is required before promotion. |
| Stage | Fallen — broke its own criteria; kept on purpose |
| Re-measured | Re-measured nightly by the day engine (rule btc_makro) · last 2026-09-09 |
| Forward shadow | 6 shadow entries · INSUFFICIENT DATA — no rate is shown before 10 entries; the finding needs 30 |
What would invalidate it
- hit rate falls below baseline on the next 20 cases
- the half-split stops holding as new days are added
How to read this page
Every number describes the past under the stated conditions. A finding that passes today can fall tomorrow; Apex keeps fallen findings visible on purpose. Stages, tests and the family-wise correction are described in the methodology.