Bitcoin’s correlation with gold reached a five-year high while its correlation with equities fell. We measured which one actually moved.
Bitcoin does not have one character. It has two, and which one appears depends on whether markets are calm or frightened.
Over a rolling 60-day window, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold reached its highest level in five years, while the Nasdaq’s correlation with gold fell over the same window.
That comparison is the whole point. If everything had simply become more correlated, this would be a market-wide effect and not a fact about Bitcoin. It was not market-wide: Bitcoin moved and the Nasdaq did not. The measurement stands at p = 0.011.
The gold-like behaviour shows up in calm conditions. Under stress it goes away. On the days when a safe-haven asset would actually earn the name, Bitcoin has fallen with risk assets while gold held.
So the honest summary is uncomfortable: Bitcoin resembles gold when it does not matter, and resembles equities when it does.
Our register marks this finding discovered — not confirmed. The measurement is significant, but a correlation window is not a trading rule, and we have not shown that knowing this in advance would have helped anyone.
We publish it at that stage deliberately. A finding that is interesting and unproven should be labelled as exactly that.
All numbers on this page were published in Apex’s own record at the time; they describe the past under stated conditions and promise nothing about the future. All articles · The Apex day